Supply exceeds demand? Industry Trends and Best Practices

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According to the latest market trends on March 5, 2026, the current stainless steel market is in a game stage of “strong cost support” and “weak demand reality”. The following is a summary of core news and market trends:

1、 Price trend: cost driven, with strong fluctuations

  • 304 series (mainstream): The overall spot price remains stable, and the mainstream quotation for private cold-rolled coils is between 14500-15100 CNY/ton. Supported by high nickel iron prices, steel mills have a strong willingness to raise prices, but downstream procurement is cautious, with transactions mainly focused on essential needs
  • 316L series (high alloy): The performance is the strongest, with cold rolling quotes concentrated between 27800-28400 CNY/ton. Affected by the sharp rise in molybdenum prices and tight spot resources, the price of this variety has increased significantly, and merchants have a strong willingness to raise prices
  • Futures trend: The main stainless steel contract (SS2604) rose in the evening session, stabilizing at the 14300 CNY/ton mark. The market is affected by the expected peak season of “Golden Three, Silver Four” and the rising energy costs caused by geopolitical conflicts, showing a fluctuating upward trend

2. Industry News: Standard Implementation and Capacity Expansion

  • New standard implementation: Starting from March 1st, the industry standard for “Stainless Steel Cold Rolled Steel Plates and Strips for Home Appliances” will be officially implemented. This standard includes high-strength stainless steel series product grades for the first time, standardizes the selection of materials for household appliances, and helps promote the thinning application of stainless steel in the field of household appliances
  • Capacity release: Steel mills saw a significant increase in production in March compared to the previous month, with an expected 32.7% month on month increase in output to 3.6335 million tons. Although the supply pressure has increased, the production of the 300 series has slightly decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the absolute level has not yet exceeded the same period last year
  • Raw material costs: The repeated nickel ore policy in Indonesia (quota expectation adjustment) and geopolitical conflicts have pushed up shipping costs, resulting in a sustained increase in nickel and chromium ore prices, providing a solid cost bottom support for stainless steel prices

3. Market outlook

In the short term, the market is in a tug of war between “strong expectations” and “weak reality”. On the one hand, high raw material costs and peak season expectations support prices; On the other hand, the accumulation of inventory after the holiday and the slow pace of downstream resumption of work have suppressed the upward space. It is expected that stainless steel prices will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the pace of destocking and Indonesian policy trends

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