Synopsis

Following a period of negative growth during 2016, due to the economic slowdown and a decline in European Union (EU) funding, the Polish construction industry recovered in 2017, supported by a gradual improvement in economic conditions which led to a revival in investor confidence. Significant financial aid from the EU also supported the country’s overall infrastructure development during 2017. That year, the European Investment Bank (EIB), a subsidiary of the EU, invested PLN23.5 billion (US$6.2 billion) to develop various construction projects. Despite the drop in 2016, the industry posted positive growth during the review period (2013–2017), registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.67% in real terms.

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Over the forecast period (2018–2022), the industry’s output value in real terms is expected to post a CAGR of 4.99%, supported by public and private sector investments in public infrastructure and residential construction projects. The EU will continue to remain a vital source of infrastructure investment for the country through investments under the 2014–2020 programming period.

The industry’s expansion over the forecast period will be supported by the implementation of government flagship programs such as the National Road Construction Program, Responsible Development Strategy and Infrastructure and Environment Program 2014–2020. Additionally, the government’s efforts to construct affordable houses for the population are expected to support the industry’s growth.

Summary

Construction in Poland – Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022 report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Polish construction industry, including:

• The Polish construction industry’s growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity

• Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Polish construction industry

• Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Poland. It provides:

• Historical (2013-2017) and forecast (2018-2022) valuations of the construction industry in Poland, featuring details of key growth drivers.

• Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector

• Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.

• Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants

Reasons to Buy

• Identify and evaluate market opportunities using standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.

• Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.

• Understand the latest industry and market trends.

• Formulate and validate strategy using critical and actionable insight.

• Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.

• Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.

Key Highlights

• Timetric expects the infrastructure construction market to retain its leading position over the forecast period, with a share of 30.3% of the industry’s total value in 2022. In January 2018, the government announced the long-term railway maintenance budget for the rail sector, under which it plans to invest PLN23.8 billion (US$6.6 billion) between 2019 and 2023 to upgrade and maintain the rail infrastructure.

• Under the ‘Startup Poland’ program, the government aims to encourage startup companies to set up their businesses in the country. Accordingly, the government allocated PLN3.0 billion (US$760.9 million) until 2020 to provide funding support to over 1,000 startups. This is expected to add pace to the flow of foreign investment in the industry. Moreover, improving manufacturing activity in the country is also expected to add momentum to the industry’s expansion.

• Timetric expects the residential construction market output to record a forecast-period CAGR of 8.46% in nominal terms supported by government efforts to develop affordable housing for the low- and middle-income population. In May 2017, the state-owned bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego and the EIB signed an agreement to invest PLN2.1 billion (US$554.7 million) until 2021 to construct affordable and social housing units in various municipalities across the country.

• Under the National Road Construction Program, the government is investing PLN107.0 billion (US$33.9 billion) until 2023 to construct 3,900km of motorways and expressways across the country. Moreover, in June 2017, the government announced plans to allocate an additional PLN28.0 billion (US$7.4 billion) to support the implementation of the program until 2023.

• The total construction project pipeline in Poland, as tracked by the Construction Intelligence Center (CIC), including all mega projects with a value above US$25 million, stands at PLN582.0 billion (US$153.8 billion). The pipeline, which includes all projects from pre-planning to execution, is skewed to early-stage projects, with 55.0% of the pipeline value being projects in the pre-planning and planning stages as of March 2018.

Table of Content: Key Points

1 Executive Summary

2 Construction Outlook: At-a-glance

3 Latest News and Indicators

4 Key Drivers and Risks

    4.1 Economic Performance

    4.2 Political Environment

    4.3 Demographics

    4.4 Risk Profile

5 Construction Outlook

    5.1 All Construction

      5.1.1 Outlook

      5.1.2 Project analytics

…Continued        

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